F2 Navigation   |  Options  |  Login  |  Register  |  Status  |  FAQ  |  Upload Pics  |  Work-Safe Bookmark and Share


Posts by sandman

Page: Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 Next

 Timestamp Post 
2/29/2012 8:43 pm

View Thread

View Post
BTW, interesting life you have led, and thank you for serving the U.S.

2/29/2012 8:42 pm

View Thread

View Post
. said:Naturally, however this is kind of what I'm touching on.

Ex: in one of my conflict analysis and resolution courses, my prof asked me for an example of how I avoided escalating conflict in real life. I told her about how I worked as a security manager for a NGO in Somalia right after I left the Marines. I had limited resources, and was responsible for taking Western nurses into some of the shittier parts of the country.

My solution was to sit down over a pack of smokes with the local warlord and get in his good graces, gain his trust. A pack of marlboros and tea. That simple.

When she asked me what process I used to deduce that would be the most effective "resolution", I said it was just common sense. Blew her fucking mind. She couldn't grasp that I didn't use some mathematical model to solve the issue.



The effective resolution was that you supplied something which was what he wanted. In economics this exchange could be modeled as a "welfare" component. The welfare component benefited both you and the warlord. Because it benefited both parties in the negotiations, risk was reduced for both parties and the increase in welfare benefited the local society.

There was likely a broker involved before you met the warlord, yes? Or the warlord acted as a "broker" rather than a "principal agent" in this transaction.

Modeling this stuff via charts doesn't guarantee any solutions but it can allow you to see a subconscious solution that lies within your fleet of "common sense" solutions.

Kind of like how House, on House MD, writes down all the symptoms on a whiteboard to eventually deduce what strange disease the patient has. The fact that he does this allows him to see other options that might be important despite being trivial to the conscious mind.
2/29/2012 8:34 pm

View Thread

View Post
MW.nli said:The fucking idiot just doesn't get it.

:facepalm:



Get what? How did you assess the demand for your natural light studio before you spent the money?

The value of any asset are the future cash flows that the asset can generate.

Now, you are renting a small house on a property. There is no guarantee of an extension of a lease unless the home owner signs one for many, many years. In your prior warehouse example, most business of that sort sign leases that last at least ten years, so if they invest capital they have ten years to make a return on their investment.

In your case, the landlord owns the property and can claim your natural light studio at any time. He can kick you off the property after your current lease expires. This shifts the time horizon to gain cash flows from your asset from several years or a known quantity of time to an unknown quantity of time.

So, you have no guarantee that you can generate cash flows from your natural light studio. You could be kicked off the property.

The burden of risk is entirely upon you. This means that there is greater variation in your cash flows for the future and a greater probability that the cash flows could be halted for any reason at all. Even if your business were initially a success.
2/29/2012 8:29 pm

View Thread

View Post
. said:We're getting into game theory. I didn't mean to sound so harsh because for the most part my profs are decent people. At least I don't get treated the same as the moronic kids in my courses do.

But they've been sheltered in their little world for so long that they just don't understand how things flow.



A lot of it is theoretical but if you study hard, your critical thinking skills will improve dramatically.
2/29/2012 8:26 pm

View Thread

View Post
MW.nli said:It's all bullshit until you actually do something with it, and I don't see that happening with you.



You can use mathematical modeling for anything.

Such as predicting the actual demand for a natural light studio in Eureka CA.

The reason why most small business owners fail is because they take "guesses", James. They take on too much risk and too much leverage too soon and their cash flows quickly become destroyed unless they have phenomenal growth.

And the reverse could be true, where they have phenomenal growth but can't meet demand because they don't have adequate financing and cash flows to build inventories, etc.

When it comes to assessing risk, you can't take a guess, James. Otherwise your success will depend entirely upon luck.

Make sense?

This is why when you go into a bank to get a loan to start a business they are very keen on how you intend to bring in cash flow and what your projections are. How realistic are these projections? What is your analysis of demand? How knowledgeable are you of current economic conditions?

If Ben Bernanke goes ahead with quantitative easing part 3, how does this work? What impact does this have on the yield curve, inflation, consumer spending, the exchange rate on the dollar versus other currencies?

Knowing the lingo and knowing these things is no guarantee for success but it helps you mitigate potential losses. In other words, you can better assess and mitigate risk.

That is the secret to business. Managing risk.
2/29/2012 8:19 pm

View Thread

View Post
. said:I'm back in college in my mid 30s. Double majoring in International Relations and Conflict Analysis. This is after a hitch in the Marines, and working overseas security for 9 years.

The professors are mostly idiots who have no fucking clue how the world works. They really are fucking clueless. But, I keep my mouth shut until I get the paper.

Then I'll let them in on how stupid they are.



Study the game theory regarding conflict analysis. You probably will anyway. Someone like James would call this "useless" but you will study graphs and movements and sorta build mathematical proofs which show how most people will behave in most situations.

The math is important because it will "back up" what you intuitively know anyway.
2/29/2012 8:15 pm

View Thread

View Post
MW.nli said:You really are not very very bright, Sean. Most business majors are clueless of anything outside their limited grasp..



How is building a natural light studio a "creative endeavor"? How is it innovative?

Attending business school and taking quantitative courses has given me a more analytical, mathematical mind. Not only can I speak the lingo of business, I can build mathematical models that can forecast dependent variables. These variables can be anything from demand, to advertising required, to capital structure needed in a business, stock valuation, whatever.

What I can do, creatively, is integrate new methods and new procedures and new technologies very quickly.

Is this useful in Reno? Probably not.

:lol:
2/29/2012 8:07 pm

View Thread

View Post
MW.nli said:This is why there are no real innovations anymore. All the self-important tards spend their so-called worktime schmoozing with the other self-important tards, with not a creative mind in the bunch.



You mean a real innovation like a natural light studio, which you are building, which has been around for 5000 years?

:rofl:
2/29/2012 7:53 pm

View Thread

View Post
. said:Spoken like a true MBA, communications, or some other bullshit type of major.

Your kind could all be bulldozed into giant pits and buried alive and no one would be any the worse for it.



Accountant types stick with accountant types. IT types stick with IT types. Finance geeks stick with other finance geeks. Etc.

Helps to know the lingo and how they think.
2/29/2012 7:50 pm

View Thread

View Post
MW.nli said:I'm seeing evidence of that more and more. People who have advanced degrees become so focused on hypothetical theories that they cannot focus on their daily work, or anything else for that matter.

Advanced education appears to be a debilitating feature in this way.



What it really does is help you "speak the language". You improve your odds of making connections when you have at least some idea of what you are talking about.
2/29/2012 9:39 am

View Thread

View Post
Mascara said:It's on Third, near the courthouse.

They just adjusted the snow totals from 3-6" to 6-10".

:banana:



Snowed here a couple of days ago. Nice change.
2/29/2012 5:13 am

View Thread

View Post
What is the IRR for the natural light studio?

Here are the cash flows (monthly):

-12000
1200
300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2/29/2012 5:11 am

View Thread

View Post
. said:Translated: Jambes will start picking up cans and bottles for the deposits. Can't find a job. Can't do anything else except suck cocks.



You just know he's pulled out his rancid old man cock and pounded the fuck out of it after he saw magbas spreading his asshole on asscam. Probably wanted magbas to sit on his face and fart until his stomach blew up like a Macy's Day Parade balloon.
2/29/2012 4:20 am

View Thread

View Post
das but said:I found a scratch ticket the other day untouched... I tore it up and threw it in the trash without scratching anything. I hope it was a million dollar winner... I want nothing to do with that garbage



Which raises a good question. Say a bum like James Marks picked it out of the trash can, scratched it off, and it turned out to be a million dollar winner. Could he tape it back together and collect his million big ones?
2/29/2012 4:15 am

View Thread

View Post
Mascara said:Twelve years worth of important projects.

:lol:



Twelve ounces of 100 proof later.... lol
2/29/2012 4:14 am

View Thread

View Post
Mascara said:Heyo

:wave:



I heard MW was stalking me, Kat, and magbas all week. What a fruitcake.

:grouphug:
2/29/2012 3:55 am

View Thread

View Post
das but said:ica was miserable...
i dont even want to go into it now. Plus being surrounded by a bunch of allston and cambridge hipsters with Dali style curled mustaches made me want to throw up as they talked about a visualization a piece made them feel... I felt nothing except sick. All the pieces were garbage, fucking garbage! And all the cunts that did the pieces were my age or slightly older.

I'm starting to think all it takes is a really huge medium and an art degree to get excepted into an exhibit like that. thats all I saw.



Go to a radical contemporary art museum and start posting your dick paintings all over the place.

2/29/2012 3:49 am

View Thread

View Post
MW.nli said:Do you wear a huge felt hat with a feather hatband now?



You are obsessed with this "pimping" shit.

BTW, GF is febreezing my shoes and cleaning our high rise apartment.

:digtbk:
2/29/2012 3:41 am

View Thread

View Post
Lay off the guy you retarded drunken old fruit.
2/22/2012 4:55 am

View Thread

View Post
. said:how's life in the garage treating you, SEAN?



Last night I thought that the post you are referring was quite funny. The guy thinks he is generous by paying his clerk peanuts but calls his opponent a "jew".
2/22/2012 4:36 am

View Thread

View Post
. said:Contingency cases are only civil, of course. You front all costs of litigation. It's pretty hard to pay for investigators, document preparation/paralegal services, Westlaw, court fees, transcript fees, cost of travel to depositions and on and on over the course of 5 years as you wriggle through the immense maze of civil procedure all by yourself. You have to have a huge war chest to begin with, and you have to face potentially losing the case, and therefore, the entirety of your fee.

But you knew that.



Yeah.

Most people graduating law schools will default on loans.
2/22/2012 4:29 am

View Thread

View Post
. said:Wrong.

Economic law dictates that the top 1-2 firms in a market take the lions share of profits.

It is very difficult for newcomers to compete, and take away market share.

A small newcomer, trying to compete on price, is a failed strategy. It would be like trying to open a small general store, and compete against a local Walmart on price.

Back to the server room, Milton.



Live at home with parents.

Take contingencies cases.

Hope you start winning.
2/21/2012 3:02 am

View Thread

View Post
He used to be a nice guy
2/21/2012 2:54 am

View Thread

View Post
It's obvious he blames his problems on women. Pathologically. He truly hates them. He is serial killer dangerous, like a raging Ted Bundy on meth
2/21/2012 1:36 am

View Thread

View Post
. said:You seem like you should just leave. Board garbage.



How's that natural light studio coming along you old drunk?
 

Page: Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 Next